Last week I spent two frantic days supporting an old university friend in his quest to represent the residents of Hampstead Town on Camden Council. My election day involved rising early to vote and what followed was a mixed day of watching people from outside a polling station to knocking on doors in the hope of ‘getting out the vote’.
Voters of all shapes and sizes passed me by, some with a kind word and others with an ironic smile. There were fresh 18 year olds walking in with pride and the diehard voters who arrived at the polling station with their polling number memorised.
My personal experience of the day was reflected across the country, with one interesting exception: the success of UKIP. Unlike the rest of the country London bucked the UKIP trend.
Despite Nigel Farage’s party making gains around the country, Londoners were not swayed by his anti-EU and anti-immigration rhetoric. A total of 10 UKIP councillors were elected in the capital – seven in Havering and three in Bexley. That means the party now has fewer councillors than it did in London before the elections. Seven had been elected in 2010, and a total of 19 defected to UKIP before this year’s elections.
Apart from that, however, Camden was very reflective: The Liberal Democrat support collapsed and Labour benefited, vindicating their decision to target disillusioned Liberal Democrat supporters. Likewise the Conservatives prevailed where the main opposition was the Liberal Democrats.
So, taking into account my personal experience and the national picture, what exactly does the Local Election results mean for national politics?
UKIP breakthrough (again)
However you look at these results they are great news for UKIP. What makes them arguably more important than last year’s local election results (other than being closer to the next General Election), which though impressive were largely confined to Conservative Shire counties, is that UKIP can now genuinely say that they can take votes from each of the main political parties.
Last week results builds on UKIP’s astonishing success last May, suggesting ‘man of the people’ Nigel Farage will keep smiling, drinking ale and winning votes.
Labour make key gains in London
Equally as interesting as UKIP’s successes nationally has been Labour’s success in London. Labour were looking to make progress in outer London boroughs, areas key to Boris Johnson’s successive elections as Mayor and they have managed to do so.
So with UKIP doing well and Labour making gains can Ed Miliband start measuring the curtains at Number 10?
Sky News used the results to project Labour as the largest party at next year’s General Election but just short of an overall majority. Such comparisons are tricky because turnout is far higher at General Elections and voters will likely consider far more carefully the implication of their vote when it impacts who controls the economy and ultimately who is the next Prime Minister.
The reality is that for all of Labour’s success in London, the picture elsewhere is less conclusive.
More misery for the Lib Dems
The Lib Dems may have had a miserable time of it in many places but their result in Cheltenham demonstrated they can still win well in parliamentary heartlands.
However, overall the Lib Dems lost 310 councillors and have only 1 MEP.
The question facing the party is whether or not to stay with Nick Clegg. Many believe that voters turned their back on the party because voters viscerally dislike the Deputy PM.
Clegg should survive but only because the consequences of ousting him are far more frightening than keeping him in place.
The failure of Lord Oakeshott to oust Clegg and his subsequent resignation should shore up Nick’s position for the time being.
No overall control will be a theme for quite a while
The rise of UKIP has forced a number of Conservative-run councils to no overall control, with the party faring particularly well in Essex where they made major gains in Southend and Castle Point.
There is a trend coming out of the local elections: we don’t trust our politicians; we don’t trust their plans and we are no longer loyal; and because of that we don’t want any party to be strong.
Until this cycle is broken the words ‘no overall control’ will be prevalent.
