Default HubSpot Blog

Budget 2014: The housebuilding challenge

Mar 19, 2014 9:10:38 AM / by Charlotte

In towns and cities right across the South of England there is a familiar story. Look in the window of an estate agent and you will see that over half of the properties on display are either sold or under offer. But even rarer than the sight of a house for sale is the sight of a house being built.

A key problem for the Chancellor is that extra housebuilding is not always popular among homeowners, many of whom naturally vote Conservative.

So as George Osborne prepares to announce his budget this afternoon, is there anything that he could do to help?

'The affordability crisis'

Last year just 109,370 new homes were completed in England, the lowest figure for four years. Yet the number of households is expected to grow by 221,000 every year this decade.

The result of that shortfall - according to a basic principle of supply-and-demand economics - is that house prices will continue to rise, making them even more unaffordable.

According to the Home Builders Federation (HBF) we need a sustained period – 20 to 25 years – of very much higher levels of homebuilding to solve the affordability crisis.

It also recommends that the first part of the government's Help to Buy scheme be tapered, rather than ended abruptly, in March 2016.

While Mr Osborne may argue that Help to Buy has already resulted in many new homes being built, his long-term challenge is to keep a lid on prices.

That challenge is not straightforward. First, not everyone accepts that the supply-and-demand equation works in practice.

The Campaign to Protect Rural England (CPRE) has long argued that the price of housing is set by the existing market. Since 90% of houses for sale are second-hand, the price of new homes makes little difference.

"We do not support the simple economic argument that house prices will fall if we boost housing supply," says Fiona Howie, the CPRE head of planning.

But there is another problem for the chancellor. Extra housebuilding is not always popular among homeowners, many of whom naturally vote Conservative.

Labour, meanwhile, is putting its faith in a housing review, under the chairmanship of Sir Michael Lyons that is expected to report this year.

However, to judge by the chancellor's recent remarks to a House of Lords committee, no-one should erect an early memorial to Mr Osborne the house-builder.

"I imagine if we were all assembled again in 10 years' time we'd still be talking about the challenge of making sure that our housing supply kept up with housing demand," he said.

So is he going to fix it soon? By his own admission, probably not.

Topics: Engagement, George Osborne, Home Builders Federation (HBF), Campaign to Protect Rural England (CPRE)

Charlotte

Written by Charlotte

Subscribe to Email Updates

Lists by Topic

see all

Posts by Topic

See all

Recent Posts