Tuesday night in Birmingham, and rumours circulated around the drinks receptions that another defection from a senior Conservative to UKIP was looming. Ending the Conservative conference with another scalp following the defection of Mark Reckless.

The hope that UKIP support would fall following the European elections had not materialised, and some pollsters were predicting that UKIP would win four seats next year, suggesting that the party had established itself a solid position in the polls. Leaving the Conservative Party fighting an election on two fronts, taking on Labour and wooing back support that had gone to UKIP.

UKIP failed to pull the rabbit out of the hat, but the Prime Minister used his speech to focus on addressing the challenge that UKIP pose, and a move that was reminiscent of conferences of old, delegates were provided with paper Union flags. The speech was tough in tone and gave an idea of what the Prime Minister would seek to gain from his European negotiation strategy.

Whilst the Conservatives have a 20-point lead on the question “Which party do you trust on the economy?” it trails Labour on the question of which party will deliver improvements in voter’s individual economic circumstances. The speech was aimed at tackling that gap rather than shifting the narrative. For some on the right, the language used would have been alarmingly left leaning. There was a standing ovation for increasing spending on the NHS, and warm applause for the commitment to build 100,000 new starter homes for first-time buyers.

It is clear that the Conservative strategy is to badge the election as a straight choice between Cameron and Miliband, but a deeper concern would be how the party bridge the gap between economic competence and voters views on how much the party cares for those struggling.

So, despite defections, resignations, and a deficit in the polls that refuses to shrink – Conservative party activists (and the occasional lobbyist) left Birmingham buoyant and convinced that next year’s general election can be theirs.

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