On June 8th Britain is holding a general election to choose a new government – yes, another vote. There are 650 parliamentary seats up for grabs, the vast majority (533) are in England, while Scotland has 59 seats, Wales 40 and Northern Ireland 18.

Let’s start with the good news, there are only 43 days left of the campaign. Meaning you only have six weeks to pretend you are out when party canvassers come knocking on your door; and maybe only a handful of leaflets to ‘read’.

Now for the bad news, you will be bombarded with predictions, polls and discussions of the outcome. By the time you come to vote you would have seen and heard of polls that show remarkably different outcomes, read conflicting stories in the media and disagreed with friends and family on which way to vote.

I am not going to predict how this election will unfold, that’s too risky. However, there is one thing I am certain of: no party will win a UK-wide majority again.

If you study election results and trends, or as it is known psephology (geek alert) you will be aware that traditionally under our first past the post system, parties have only needed to get just over a third of the popular vote to secure a majority of MPs and so form a government. Tony Blair’s last general election in 2005, was achieved with only 35% of the popular vote; and David Cameron (remember him?) won in 2015 with 36.9% of the popular vote.

Margaret Thatcher twice won enormous parliamentary majorities of over 100 in general elections, but never won more than 42% of the popular vote. In 1979 the two main parties, Labour and Conservative had 66 seats between them in Scotland, 44 for Labour and 22 for the Conservatives. When you contrast that with the 2015 result you begin to see why our elections are becoming a battle to win England and not the whole country. Labour has one seat in Scotland and so do the Conservatives.

Yes, there is a possibility that the Scottish Conservatives, who are undergoing a resurgence under Ruth Davidson, will win anything up to ten seats. But that is ten against a possible 533 in England for the Conservatives.

If you believe the polls the Conservatives could win around 45% of the popular vote. That sounds quite decisive, but the truth is we will have a country represented by up to four different political parties: England - Conservative, Scotland – SNP, Wales – Labour or maybe Conservative; and Northern Ireland – DUP or perhaps Sinn Feinn. (SNP).

Come June 9th we will have a one-party government, but that party will probably only command a majority in one or at a push two constituent parts of our United Kingdom.

Enjoy the next six weeks!