One month since Theresa May declared that it is not the time for a second Scottish independence referendum, as the Government are putting “all its energies” into negotiating a Brexit deal, the Prime Minister has called for a snap general election on June 8th. Never mind her claims that there wasn’t going to be a general election until 2020, more pressing now is how this election is going to play out.
First and foremost Theresa May needs a two-thirds majority of MPs to call the general election under the Fixed Term Parliament Act. Later today we will know the outcome of the parliamentary vote – but for all intents and purposes it is a done deal. Jeremy Corbyn has announced that Labour will be voting in favour of a general election - although many Labour MPs might be wishing he hadn’t.
Latest polls give the Conservatives a staggering 16-21 (depending on the poll) point lead over the Labour party. Since the 2010 election, where polls predicted a hung parliament, questions around the accuracy of polling is rife – but this will not be much comfort to Labour who were overestimated by 2.4 points on average in 2010. This election is going to be a serious test of the resilience of the Labour party, and of Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn. Let’s just say it isn’t looking good…
Regardless of the accuracy of the polls parliament is going to have some new faces come June 9th. Tom Blenkinsop MP (Labour, Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland), almost immediately declared he would not be standing in the general election. On the other end of the political spectrum Arron Banks, former UKIP donor, will be standing in Clacton against former UKIP MP (now an independent) Douglas Carswell. The jury is out as to whether a Farage-less UKIP can rise to the challenges of a snap general election.
The SNP, spearheaded by Nicola Sturgeon, have no qualms about what this election means for Scotland – consolidating an already leading majority, perhaps even gaining the last 3 non-SNP seats in Scotland. With a stronger SNP majority the calls for a second referendum on Scottish Independence will surely begin again shortly after the general election.
The big unknown in this election are the Liberal Democrats. A recent rise in popularity since the Brexit vote could see the Lib Dem’s gain from both Labour and Conservative seats across the country, however, the polls suggest that perceived popularity won’t translate into seats in parliament. Although, it may not be a resurgence the Liberal Democrats could cause some headaches for the big two political parties come June 8th.
With parliament due to go in recess May 3rd and the general election a scant 5 weeks later the next couple of months could see major changes in British politics. However, at times like these the bookies odds are often the most sensible and the current Prime Minister is at 1/10.