The short answer many will probably give you is no, and they would be backed up by the first poll of the 2016 Mayor of London battle, which revealed that the Conservative’s shinning hope (at least for now) Zac Goldsmith would lose to Dame Tessa Jowell.
The longer answer is perhaps they can. Although Labour increased its general election vote share the Conservatives share held up and represented 1,233,386 votes compared with Labour’s 1,545,080. Look at it like that and suddenly the gap does not look that large.
However, there are three hurdles the Tory candidate must overcome.
You are on your own
Whoever wins the Conservative nomination will have to build a grassroots organisation from scratch. Compare this to the London Labour Party machine and the Conservatives start at a significant disadvantage.
Analysis undertaken by Westminster City Councillor Jonathan Glanz, showed that the places the Conservatives needed to win across London were not blessed with manpower or money.
Therefore, the candidate will need to build their own grassroots machine in a very short timeframe, which in turn means that they will need a big enough budget to deliver it.
The key issues favour Labour
The average Londoner often cites their most important issues as transport, housing and crime. In 2016 it is fair to say that housing, and specifically affordability, will be top. Most likely followed by transport (cost of the tube / bus fares). These two issues are tailor made for Labour and will easily enable the Labour candidate to motivate their base, and as the ‘opposition’ will give him / or her a good chance of being believed by people.
Transport will probably be nullified as a campaign message, as all candidates are likely to call for lower fares.
However, to stand a chance the Conservative candidate must come up with a compelling housing offer. The main problem in London is that the Conservatives are generally not trusted, with their record of delivery questionable. The candidate cannot fall-back on Boris’ record and must come up with radical ideas in order to get a hearing.
The doughnut is rapidly stalling
Boris won in 2008 and 2012 with a strategy known as the ‘doughnut plus the jam’. That is, getting out the voters in outer London and Tory leaning voters in inner London.
In 2012 Boris lost ground in outer London, people with long commutes and expensive season tickets who voted Boris in 2008 stayed at home.
The situation in 2016 looks bleak, increasing house prices in Central London have led to many Labour-leaning groups - working-class folk and young graduates - heading out. Some may eventually pick up the politics of their Tory neighbours, but so far the shifts are benefiting Labour more than the Conservative Party.
That is not all, in inner London, new developments that are out of reach of the ordinary person is leading to the phenomenon known as ‘ghost homes’. For every ‘ghost home’ delivered, the likelihood is that it equates to one less vote for the Conservatives in 2016.
The three hurdles are not insurmountable, but whoever wins the Conservative nomination will need to hit the ground running. As a Conservative activist in London I remain optimistic, with a high-profile, well liked candidate nothing is impossible.